Points are not savings. They are a melting asset.
It is tempting to treat a points balance like money in the bank — something that sits safely until you are ready. But points are issued by the same companies that can change their worth at any time, and history shows they use that power. A balance that could book a business-class seat one year can fall short the next, without you spending a single point.
That is what this tool makes visible. It applies a historical average erosion rate for your program type and projects your balance forward, so the cost of waiting stops being abstract and becomes a number you can see.
Why airline miles erode fastest
Not all points fall at the same rate. Airline miles tend to lose value quickest because award charts change often and with little notice. Hotel points sit in the middle. Bank transferable points hold up best, because their flexibility across many partners cushions any single program’s cut — which is exactly why they are the most useful currency to earn.
The rates here are averages across years and programs. Some years bring no change at all; others bring a sudden double-digit cut overnight. The point is not to predict a specific number, but to show the direction and the pressure: waiting rarely works in your favor.
What to do about it
The lesson is not to hoard and it is not to panic — it is to earn and burn with intent. Have a use in mind before you build a large balance, redeem for solid value when you find it, and keep an eye on the programs you rely on. Our Devaluation Tracker logs the actual changes as they happen, and the Report Card grades each program by its documented record.
This is a general educational tool, not financial advice. Devaluation rates vary widely by program and year; the figures here are historical averages, not a forecast for any specific balance.